Changes in naval warfare: AI and unmanned systems

Over about 20 years of working Navy systems technology development, including must-have upgrades in radar, electronic warfare, laser weapons, and more, I’ve witnessed firsthand how technology transforms naval warfare – and it’s not rapid! Delivering new transformative capabilities can take decades, from requirements development to securing funding to system development, integration, and testing. Thankfully, some areas appear to be changing. Driven by geopolitical competition, the Navy is aligned with a sense of urgency in delivering against Chief of Naval Operations’ initiatives, particularly those related to unmanned systems and Fleet command and control. The evidence of this was front and center this winter at AFCEA West 2025 in numerous keynote addresses, panel discussions, and with the myriad of software and AI companies present. We’re at a pivotal moment in naval and technology history, where the convergence of operational need, new operational architectures, a culture of experimentation, and advances in artificial intelligence – including AI operating in edge devices – are enabling rapid advances in autonomy and decision support that may fundamentally reshape how we maintain maritime dominance.

During my time leading Project Overmatch, we demonstrated how edge AI-enabled autonomous systems could operate (and be updated) effectively, including in maritime environments where connectivity isn’t guaranteed. In this way, we can take advantage of broader developments in areas of AI like computer vision, but then safely and effectively use those models in systems that can’t or won’t access the cloud. From computer vision on a drone to decision support in an operations center, these models must safely and effectively operate on the edge.

From discussion in the keynote addresses by the Pacific Fleet Commander and Central Command Deputy Commander to panels on Disruptive Capabilities, Robotic Autonomous Systems acquisition, Replicator, and Fleet Operations, every aspect of Fleet introduction and use of unmanned systems was discussed. Another theme was speed – the need for a sense of urgency to deliver but also to adapt. Hence, the culture of experimentation – developing new concepts of operation in concert with the latest capabilities. While there are missions where sending a robot makes more sense than sending a human (e.g., mine warfare), it’s also clear that we just need more mass for missions like sea control. Rejecting previous arguments that ‘precision is the new mass,’ the Seventh Fleet Commander said, “Mass is the new mass.”

The Navy is squarely aligned from senior leadership on down with the urgent need to adopt unmanned systems into a Hybrid Fleet. The convergence of operational imperative and technological advances – on display at West and in development in the commercial industry – means that these unmanned systems can be AI-enabled to exhibit ever-increasing levels of autonomous behavior. I’m optimistic that the jump-start given by efforts like AMMO, Replicator, and Overmatch, coupled with Fleet experimentation and a culture of experimentation, will deliver the Hybrid Fleet and, along the way, ensure that any body of water can be made into a hellscape at will.

Bio: Rear Admiral Doug Small (USN, Ret.)

Rear Admiral Doug Small (USN, Ret.) brings over 36 years of naval technology leadership experience to his role as Strategic Advisor at Latent AI. Most recently, Small served as Commander of the Naval Information Warfare Systems Command (NAVWAR), where he led a global workforce of 11,000 civilian and military professionals in developing and delivering information warfare technologies for the Navy and Marine Corps. He also served as the inaugural Direct Reporting Program Manager for Project Overmatch, establishing new standards for naval operational architecture and system interoperability.

A graduate of Marquette University with a Bachelor’s in Physics and holder of a Doctorate in Physics from the Naval Postgraduate School, Small’s career includes significant operational experience and multiple flag officer assignments. As Program Executive Officer for Integrated Warfare Systems, he led teams responsible for developing and sustaining surface navy combat and weapon systems. His decorations include the Distinguished Service Medal, Legion of Merit, and Bronze Star.